Climate Change Security

Climate change security refers to the international security threats caused directly or indirectly by climate change. The effects of climate change, including sea level rise, desertification, glacial melting, and water shortages, all contribute to increasing security threats due to corresponding changes in geography and increased competition for natural resources. These effects are often cited as being caused by population displacement, energy dependence, border disputes, and poverty. The correlation between climate change and security threats has led policymakers to view climate change as a security issue, due to its widespread social, economic, geopolitical, and environmental dimensions. ¹

Background

The climate change security correlation has been gaining increasing attention over the last decade. On the international stage, the UN Security Council held its first debate over the impact of climate change on security in April 2007, which featured over 50 delegations representing multiple countries. ² One of the earliest reports connecting climate change and security was released by the Environmental Change and Security Program at the Washington, DC- based Woodrow Wilson Center in 1994, which has since created an annual report exploring the “connections between environmental, health, and population dynamics and their links to conflict, human insecurity, and foreign policy.” ³ Subsequent reports and legislation within the US have included the "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change" report released by the CNA Corporation, and the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act brought before the US Congress in 2007. In 2009, climate change security was specifically addressed during the October 2009 Stockholm Conference on climate change and the issue is expected to garner attention at the UNFCC's fifteenth Conference of Parties scheduled in Copenhagen in December 2009. ⁴

Causes of climate change conflict

Conflicts influenced by climate change are generally caused by a decrease in the supply of food, water, or arable land, and are exacerbated in regions that have increasing levels of population growth. The result of increasing population growth and decreasing resources leads to population displacement, border/territory disputes (of newly created land due to glacial melting), resource disputes (over arable land, water, minerals, oil), and water shortages. Conversely, conflict can also be caused by the discovery of new resources due to climate change, such as the discovery of new oil fields in the arctic.

In an Internaitonal Affairs article titled "Climate change as the ‘new’ security threat: implications for Africa" the author O. Brown illustrates a chain of events that leads to violent conflict environmental changes due to climate change. ⁵ Environmental conflict flow chart

Environmental conflict flow chart

Source: International Affairs. Author: Oli Brown. Permission: http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2007/climate...eat_africa.pdf.

Population Displacement

Darfur refugee camp in Chad

Source: Camp. Author: Mark Knobil. Permission: Wikimedia Commons.

Population displacement in the context of climate change is the migration of people from resource scarce land to resource abundant land due to environmental changes, such as desertification and water shortages. As the effects of climate change alter the supply of resources, large groups of populations are forced to migrate to more fertile and abundant regions. Through the combination of decreasing resources and migrating populations, groups of people are forced to converge on occupied or foreign territory, causing strife and conflict in the regions experiencing population influxes. Sea level rise could also result in displacement by causing population to relocate due to eroding land. More than 25 percent of the African population lives within 100 kilometers of the coast and 10 major cities are port cities located on the coast. ⁶

As early as 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that "the greatest effect of climate change may be human migration: millions of people will be displaced due to shoreline erosion, coastal flooding and agricultural disruption." ⁷

Border/ Territory Disputes

Territory disputes relating to climate change security result from conflicts over newly uncovered land due to climate change. The territories that will most likely be disputed in the future will be the arctic and antarctic regions. Glacial melting in these regions will uncover resources and shipping lanes that could cause territory disputes over the loosely drawn borders in those regions. In the arctic, the US, Canada and Russia all have claims to territory in the region and arctic boundary disputes between Canada and Russia over the Lomonosov Ridge have already taken place. ⁸ The antarctic region is currently divided between 7 different countries and includes several portions of unclaimed territory. In the region, Argentina and Chile have had minor disputes over the melting southern Patagonia ice field, which, after fully melting, could emerge as a valuable oil resource and tourist destination in the region. ⁹

Resource Disputes

Security concerns are predicted particularly in locations where neighboring countries currently share the same water supply. A future conflict over water shortage between India and Pakistan, for example, is predicted due to the diminishing availability of the Indus River as a water resource, which is currently happening due to Himalayan glacier melting. In Sudan, the current population displacement in the Darfur region is also cited as a current example of the security effects of a water shortage. In Darfur, the conflict between the Arab pastoralists and the black African agriculturalists has been fueled by competition over diminishing land resources in the region.

In 2007, the UN Security Council debated the implications and causes of the Darfur conflict and acknowledged the relevancy of climate change as a security factor both within Sudan and for the surrounding region. ¹⁰

In June 2007 UNEP released the report "Sudan: post-conflict environemtnal assessment", which suggested that the conflict in darfur has been partly caused by climate change. ¹¹

Analysts, such as P. Uvin, V. Percival, and T. Homer-Dixon, have argued that one of the factors in the build-up to the 1994 Rwandan genocide was high levels of population growth due to scarcity resources. ¹²

Water shortages

As the supply of water shrinks due to glacial melting, overuse of rivers, and the increase of droughts, "competition for limited supplies can lead nations to seek access to water as a matter of national security". ¹³ International water shortages have the possibility of raising international conflicts driven by intensifying demand over the decreasing availability of water due to loss of glaciers, overuse of rivers, and the increase of droughts. Due to glacial melting, changing weather patterns, droughts, decreased rainfall, and over-consumption of water supplies, water shortages will likely occur in many regions of the world in the near future. ¹⁴ The International Water Resource Management Institute (IWMI) has identified southeast-Asia, Africa and South America as current water scarce regions and predict that by 2025, 1.8 billion people will live in countries with absolute water scarcity. ¹⁵ The glacial melting in the Himalayas is often cited as the major factor in causing water scarcity in the future as it provides water to the major rivers of India and China, where almost a third of the world's population lives.

Climate change factors influencing conflict

Some of the environmental changes that scientists have identified as being most likely to influence conflict are desertification, sea level rise, glacial melting, and changing weather patterns. These environmental changes will consequently have effects on the people living in these regions that can lead towards conflict, such as population displacement, border/territory disputes, and resource disputes.

Desertification

Desertification is the degradation of land-based ecosystems caused by changes in climate, overuse of land, and natural weather or human activity that decreases the amount of water and moisture in the land. ¹⁶ Human overpopulation in water scarce regions causes an overuse of the land and its water resources, leading to a process in which the land becomes decreasingly infertile and ultimately experiences full desertification. Other human actions that contribute to desertification are the overuse of groundwater, such as over-drafting water from wells, and redistribution of water resources, such as through the creation of dams or the diversion of rivers for human, industrial or military uses. Lastly, climate change effects, such as changing weather patterns and droughts, can cause or exacerbate desertification by decreasing the amount of natural rainfall and water flow to land. Portions of the Iraq marshlands of the Basra Province in south Iraq, have been cited as desertification due to human interaction, in this case specifically caused by Iraq's actions of diverting the rivers away from the marshland territory for military purposes. ¹⁷ Sub-Saharan Africa, is a frequently cited case of desertification, which is caused by ongoing droughts, changing weather patterns and overpopulation. ¹⁸ The implications of desertification are increased migration away from regions experiencing desertification and the permanent loss of arable land.

Desertification Vulnerability Worldwide

¹⁹

Sea level rise

Funafuti, Tuvalu located in Pacific Ocean

The submergence of low lying coastal lands and island terrain is predicted to cause population displacement as well as military resource relocation. Low lying regions such as Bangladesh, could force a migration of “cross-border climate refugees”, causing possible conflict with neighboring countries. IN September 2009, the small island pacific ocean country Tuvalu voiced its concerns over the impacts of climate change on their resource security, loss of territory, loss of culture, and potential security implications. The report issued by Tuvalu states that "...(the) large movement of Tuvaluans to another country with a different set of cultural systems could potentially cause tensions and unrest." ²⁰ The highest point in Tuvalu is only 4 metres above sea level and the majority of the country is only 2 metres above sea level. The low lying island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean is often cited by US military officials as a key strategic military staging area for the US that could be adversely affected by the submergence of the island due to sea level rise. In the case of the Diego Garcia military base, a rise of several feet in sea level would force the US military to undertake a costly and difficult military relocation process; in addition, the military would lose a geographically strategic outpost in the Indian region.

Future sea level rise in Bangladesh

Source: earthtrends.wri.org . Author: World Resource Institute. Permission: Creative Commons.

Glacial melting

Arctic

The melting of the arctic glaciers would allow for the expansion of commercial sea lanes in the northern arctic region; a region including territory owned by Canada, Denmark (including Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russian Federation, Sweden, and the United States of America. These countries are all members of the Arctic Council, a council established in 1996, that acts as a “high level intergovernmental forum to provide a means for promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic States.” ²¹The Arctic Council and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS, form the basis for the cooperation on the Arctic. The uncovering of the northern ice cap imposes security concerns for these three countries as they currently have insufficient defense weapon systems and naval operations in the region. As a newly navigable territory, the arctic region would force the countries in the northern hemisphere to agree upon firm borderlines and invest in military protection of their respective territories. Additionally, the uncovering of new resources in the region, such as oil currently buried under the glaciers, would also provide a point of competition between the countries and could cause conflict over strategic economic resources. In January 2009, George Bush released a presidential directive on arctic region policy which "establishes the policy of the United States with respect to the Arctic region and directs related implementation actions." The directive can be found at http://www.cfr.org/publication/18215/l ²²

Arctic national boundaries

Source: http://preapism.com/2008/09/27/arcti...lobal-warming/. Author: University of Durham. Permission: Yahoo creative commons.

Antarctica

The USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) and the EIA ²³ have both produced reports showing the receding antarctic ice shelves and rise in temperature of 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit recorded over the past 50 years.²⁴ In the EIA's country analysis brief of Antarctica, EIA states that Antarctica"is expected to possess 50 billion barrels of oil - an amount roughly equivalent to that of Alaska's estimated reserves." ²⁵ Similar to the effects of global warming on the arctic region, the antarctic region could provide a situation of territorial contention over natural resources, mainly oil. The access to natural resources has physically been limited due to the extreme weather conditions that make oil field accessibility difficult²⁶ Antarctica is also protected from oil exploration and oil mining by the 1991 Madrid Protocol which set a moratorium on oil mining in Antarctica for 50 years (until 2041). ²⁷The decision can only be reversed by the agreement of all 28 countries.

In February, 2010 the UK and Argentina came into conflict over oil exploration rights in the Falkland Islands region. ²⁸ The Falkland region has drawn increased oil exploration due to high predictions of oil fields ranging upwards of 60 billion barrels. These predictions are published by oil companies in the region and differ greatly from analysis by²⁹ the USGS ³⁰ and British GS ³¹ which both predict much lower levels of recoverable oil, roughly 5.8 billion barrels. Argentina blocked a British cargo ship bringing oil drilling equipment to the Falklands, disputing that Britain is drilling too close to the Argentinean seashore. Argentina has brought the claim to the UN arguing that Britain needs a permit to pursue drilling in the area. ³²

Mitigation strategic policies

Mitigation strategies aimed at helping developing countries deal with climate change are often seen as a benefit for both developing and developed countries. As developing countries engage in conflict over climate change issues, developed countries can be effected by the spillover effects, such as migration or terrorism. Policies created to curb climate change in addition to provide aid to developing countries would help offset the impacts of climate change on developing countries and create more security worldwide.

Incorporate Climate Change into security strategies

One argument for Climate change security mitigation is to acknowledge the need for collaboration between environmental scientists and the defense and intelligence communities ³³ This would provide military planners with relevant climate change information that could then be used to create or modify National security strategies. In September the US central intelligence agency (CIA) created the 'Center on Climate Change and National Security', a unit comprised of senior specialists designed to focus on the subject of climate change security. Leon Panetta's explanation for the creation of the unit is that, "Decision makers need information and analysis on the effects climate change can have on security."

Reports/Bills regarding Climate change security

The Wilson Center's ECSP (Enivonmental Change and Security Program) has been publishing annual reports on environmental security since 1994. ³⁴ The 2008-2009 edition of the report focuses largely on water conflict and demographic security, such as population increases and youth bulges. ³⁵

Woodrow Wilson Center

Source: Flickr Commons. Author: Googlecommons. Permission: Googlecommons.

On October 18, 2007, the Climate Security Act of 2007, also known as the Lieberman-Warner bill, was introcued by Joseph Lieberman and John Warner National. This bill directed the "Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to establish a program to decrease emissions of greenhouse gases, and for other purposes" ³⁶ While the majority of the bill covers green house gas emissions, Title IV, Subtitle H called for the establishment of "an International Climate Change Adaptation and National Security Program within USAID." ³⁷ This section of the bill required the program within USAID to report on the extent to which climate change creates or exacerbates regional or international conflicts in underdeveloped countries. ³⁸

In 2007, the CNA corporation released the Security and the Threat of Climate Change report, which brought together 11 3-star and 4-star generals and admirals to draft a report on the impact of climate change as it relates to security issues. ³⁹ The report "concluded that:

Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America's national security.
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world.
Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world.
Climate change, national security and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges." ⁴⁰

On June 3, 2009 the UN Security Council passed resolution on Climate Change and Security which focused on climate change implications in regions affected by sea level rise, as the disappearance of small island states could cause conflict through population displacements effecting the smal islands poeples. ⁴¹ The resolution also "requests the Secretary-General to submit a comprehensive report to the General Assembly at its sixty-fourth session on the possible security implications of climate change, based on the views of the Member States and relevant regional and international organizations." ⁴²