Geothermal Energy includes the use of thermal energy from below-ground to produce electricity, for direct applications of heat or steam, or as a heat source or sink for a geothermal heat pump. While geothermal energy currently supplies less than 1% of the world's total energy demand 1, it has potential to contribute significantly to climate change mitigation, and become a key part of a diversified renewable energy infrastructure.
| Country | GWh electric | Country | GWh thermal |
| United States | 17,917 | China | 12,605 |
| Phillippines | 9,253 | Sweden | 10,001 |
| Mexico | 6,282 | United States | 8,678 |
| Indonesia | 6,085 | Turkey | 6,901 |
| Italy | 5,340 | Iceland | 6,806 |
| Japan | 3,467 | Japan | 2,862 |
| New Zealand | 2,774 | Hungary | 2,206 |
| Iceland | 1,483 | Italy | 2,099 |
| Costa Rica | 1,145 | New Zealand | 1,969 |
| Kenya | 1,088 | Brazil | 1,840 |
| Sum of Top 10 | 54,834 | Sum of Top 10 | 54,125 |
| All Other | 1,952 | All Other | 19,979 |
| World Total | 56,786 | World Total | 75,943 |
Source: Glitnir Bank (2007). United States: Geothermal Energy, Market Report, September 2007.
For most of the last century, electricity production from geothermal energy was limited to areas with superheated water or steam close to the surface. In the past several decades, technology has improved to allow plants to generate electricity from hydrothermal water at lower temperatures (less than 100° C), and up to 3km from the surface. Direct uses of geothermal energy also do not require superheated water, and geothermal heat pumps may be used virtually anywhere on the planet. 2 Still, the vast majority of geothermal energy production is concentrated in relatively few countries, generally in regions with recent volcanic activity. As shown in the table, in 2005, the top ten nations accounted for 97% of all geothermal electricity and 71% of all geothermal direct use.3
Currently existing geothermal energy production technologies may be categorized accordingly:
Electric Power: Geothermal energy is generally accessed by drilling a well as deep as several kilometers underground. Energy is utilized in one of 3 ways to power turbines:
(A) Binary-cycle plants, the most commonly used technology, are used when the source hydrothermal water is not hot enough to drive a generator. Heat is transferred from the hydrothermal water to another liquid that has a lower boiling point than that of water, generating vapor that can drive a turbine.4
(B) Flash steam plants pull superheated water from deep below the surface into lower-pressure tanks to produce steam. They are most common in areas where high-temperature resources are available.5
(C) Dry steam plants utilize geothermal steam directly.6
Direct Use: In areas near geothermal reservoirs, hot water or steam is piped directly to the process requiring thermal energy. The figure at right shows the direct use applications worldwide.
Direct applications of geothermal worldwide in 2004 by percentage of total use.
Source: Fridleifsson et al. (2008). Data from Lund, J.W., Freeston, D.H., and Boyd, T.L., 2005. Direct application of geothermal energy: 2005 Worldwide review. Geothermics 34, 691-727.. Permission: International Geothermal Association.Geothermal Heat Pumps supply space heating and cooling using buried pipe systems that circulate to depths where the ground temperature remains relatively constant (generally only a few meters deep).
Current geothermal energy production is very small compared to estimates of the economically viable technical potential in the near term.7 Glitnir Bank estimates that current installed capacity represents less than 5% of the economically feasible potential in 2020 for electricity production, and 0.05% for direct heat applications.8 Part of the reason for this discrepancy is financing: geothermal projects are capital-intensive, and have difficulty getting loans, particularly in the early stages.9 It should also be noted that geothermal wells are drilled with the same equipment as oil and gas wells, and drilling is a large part of geothermal project costs. For this reason, geothermal project costs will tend to increase with high fossil energy prices, due to heightened demand for drilling equipment.
Geothermal projects are typically developed in four phases: Identification, Exploration, Drilling, and Production. The time frame of each of these steps is such that about three years pass before any electricity is produced, and between $40 million and $60 million has been spent for a typical 50-MW plant.10 Of these costs, drilling accounts for between $35 million and $50 million. Most, if not all, capital prior to the development's proven feasibility is financed through equity and not debt. Due to the high risk at the early stages of the process, banks generally do not fund development with loans at phases prior to drilling. Therefore, the initial investment money comes from seed capital, venture capital, or equity financing.11
This gap between available financing and required financing for a developer creates a substantial barrier to entry that explains in part why geothermal energy accounts for such a small share of global energy use, in spite of apparently favorable economics (if one only looks at levelized cost of energy, for example). How the investment environment might change in the future will be a key determinant of global geothermal energy production.
Palinpinon geothermal plant, the Philippines
Source: Author Author: M. Gonzalez Permission: Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0
Geothermal energy produces reliable (i.e. not intermittent) baseload renewable electricity. While there are some CO2 emissions from non-binary geothermal systems, the emissions are far lower than any fossil-based electric power technology. The CO2 emissions intensity of geothermal electricity, 0.18 lb CO2 per kWh, is about 17% of the average emissions intensity of the existing stock of gas power plants in the USA. 12 Binary geothermal systems have almost no CO2 emissions as the system is closed.
Geothermal heat pumps may be installed nearly anywhere; they do not require nearby hydrothermal activity. While capital costs are higher than standard furnaces, the present-day technologies may deliver a payback in as little as 3-5 years.13
Geothermal may also serve as a key source of power in many developing nations. Kenya, for example, produces much of its electricity from geothermal resources, and in the future may be able to meet all of its electricity demand with only geothermal and hydroelectricity. Also of note, 10 of the 15 countries with the highest shares of geothermal energy (per national electricity production) are developing nations, including El Salvador, the Philippines, Nicaragua, Indonesia and Guatemala. 14 Thus, geothermal may allow some developing countries to supply a large amount of their future electricity demand through a clean, renewable resource.
There are two main limitations on geothermal energy: siting and financing (for research and project deployment). As with all renewable energy sources, the energy is produced where it is found, regardless of whether it is used for generating electricity or direct applications. For this reason, using currently commercialized technologies, geothermal projects can only exist in regions with abundant geothermal resources, generally areas with recent tectonic activity.
Financing is a difficult challenge for geothermal; part of the reason why projects cannot get loans in the early stages is that, in fact, there is a high probability of failure in the first few years of a proposed geothermal project.15 The high failure rates stem from uncertainties in the conditions that will determine the ultimate economic feasibility of projects. Slight differences in water temperature 2-3km below the surface can mean large differences in costs of energy extraction.
The scale of the technical potential of global geothermal resources dwarfs global primary energy demand16; the key question regarding future development of geothermal resources will be whether any technologies allow cost-effective deployment. One set of technologies that appears somewhat promising is producing geothermal energy from active oil and gas wells, known as coproduction. While this technology may offer a resource comparable in potential magnitude to traditional hydrothermal sources and at lower costs1718, to this point oil and gas companies have not shown interest in coproduction of geothermal energy.19
Another potentially important class of technologies is known as Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). EGS involves injecting water through present or human-created fissures far below the earth's crust so that it is heated by hot rock, then circulating the heated water back to the surface to generate electricity. 20 If EGS works and is economically feasible, it would expand the resource base dramatically, as in situ below-ground water would no longer be required for energy production. This is particularly important in consideration of the global distribution of hydrothermal resources; EGS could allow development of geothermal resources in areas that do not have economically feasible hydrothermal resources (i.e. most of the world). However, it should be noted that because an EGS project would have to supply its own water in order to produce energy, the demands for the water would have to be weighed against competing uses of water in a given region.
Projections and estimates of future development and potential of geothermal energy outline a wide range of possible futures. For the United States, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has estimated that economically viable hydrothermal resources could be 10 GW in 2015, and 30 GW by 2050 (current installed capacity is 2.8 GW).21 Coproduction may add anywhere from 10 to 100 GW, and EGS another 100 GW. However, the Energy Information Administration's 2009 Annual Energy Outlook projects that geothermal generating capacity will remain less than 3 GW through 2030.22
Estimates of global potential hydrothermal generating capacity developed by Glitnir Bank are shown in the table above. Estimates for EGS potential by region have not been developed, with a few exceptions. It has been claimed that Rehai and Yangbajing regions of China could supply about 100 GW of potential electric capacity23, and a similar estimate has been offered for India.24 However, it should be pointed out that all estimates of potential geothermal energy production, particularly estimates that include coproduction and EGS, are highly uncertain.
| Installed Capacity in 2005 (GW) | Potential (GW) | |
| North America | 3.52 | 30.0 |
| Asia | 3.29 | 42.0 |
| Europe | 1.12 | 15.8 |
| Oceania | 0.44 | 9.0 |
| Central & South America, Carribbean | 0.42 | 38.0 |
| Africa | 0.14 | 14.0 |
| World Total | 8.93 | 148.8 |
Source: Glitnir Bank (2007). United States: Geothermal Energy, Market Report, September 2007.
1International Energy Agency. Key World Energy Statistics, 2008
2Fridleifsson, I.B., R. Bertani, E. Huenges, J. W. Lund, A. Ragnarsson, and L. Rybach 2008. The possible role and contribution of geothermal energy to the mitigation of climate change. In: O. Hohmeyer and T. Trittin (Eds.) IPCC Scoping Meeting on Renewable Energy Sources, Proceedings, Luebeck, Germany, 20-25 January 2008, 59-80.
3Glitnir Bank (2007), United States: Geothermal Energy Market Report, September 2007.
456 Hydrothermal Power Systems,EERE,DOE.
7Green, B.D., and R.G. Nix (2006). Geothermal: The Energy Under Our Feet. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Technical Report NREL/TP-840-40665.
8Glitnir Bank (2007).
9Deloitte Development LLC (2008). Geothermal Risk Mitigation Strategies Report. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Geothermal Program. February 15, 2008.
10Deloitte (2008), Figure 10.
11Deloitte (2008), p. 19.
12Bloomfield, K.K., and J.N. Moore (1999). Geothermal Electrical Production CO2 Emissions Study. Idaho National Engineering & Environmental Laboratory, INEEL/CON-99-00655.
13Federal Emergency Management Program (1999), Geothermal Heat Pumps. DOE/GO 10099-727. September 1999.
14Ingvar B. Fridleifsson, et al. IPCC Report pgs. 9-10.
15Deloitte (2008), Figure 11.
16 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2006). The Future of Geothermal Power: The Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st Century, Table 1.1.
17Porro, G., and S. Petty (2007). Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Characterization. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Conference Paper NREL/CP-640-41073.
18Green and Nix (2006).
19Green and Nix (2006).
20MIT (2006), p. 1-9.
21Green and Nix (2006).
22Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009, Year-by-Year Reference Case Tables (2006-2030), Table 16: Renewable Energy Generating Capacity and Generation.
23IEA (2008). Annual Report 2006. International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement for Cooperation in Geothermal Research & Technology. p.2. Primary source: Wan, Z., Zhao, Y. and Kang, J. (2005) Forecast and evaluation of hot dry rock geothermal resource in China. Renewable Energy 30:1831-1846.
24IEA (2008), p.2. Primary source: Chandrasekhar, V. and Chandrasekharam, D. (2007) Enhanced geothermal resources: Indian scenario. GRC Transactions, 31, 271-273.