Middle East and North Africa

Water Scarcity

The historical scarcity of water across the MENA region is predicted to worsen as a result of climate change. Research by the IPCC found that the region has already experienced increased levels of drought in the period 1990 to 2002 as compared to historic baselines¹. Other climate modeling has projected a 20-30% drop in runoff in most of the region by 2050². Within the overall trend towards a drier region, some region-specific models predict rainfall will increase in particular areas, including parts of Iraq, Syria, and Iran³.

Human Consequences of Climate Change

Increasing population pressure combined with high poverty levels in both rural and urban areas increases the MENA region's vulnerability to climate change. Low-lying coastal areas are vulnerable to partial inundation due to sea-level rise, particularly in Egypt. Over 2 million residents of the city of Alexandria, for example, would be displaced by a rise in sea level of 0.5 meters⁴.

Decreasing precipitation due to climate change exacerbates existing problems of water scarcity. Unsustainable levels of groundwater extraction have drained aquifers in the region⁵ even as population increase has driven up water demand. Even the most rainfall-rich state in the region, Lebanon, is projected to face a water demand that outpaces supply by 2025. ⁶

Water scarcity is a limiting factor for agriculture in the region. In countries such as Yemen, where a majority of citizens are employed in agricultural pursuits⁷, increasing drought will result in higher unemployment in addition to lower agricultural yield. In Egypt, Yemen, and elsewhere, disruptions to basic livelihood and shortages of staple foods have proved significant threats to political stability. Bread riots and labor disputes in Egypt in recent years are indicative of the potential for such unrest – which will only be exacerbated by increased drought.

Adaptation

Society in the Middle East has been shaped by traditional and modern adaptations to the region’s highly arid climate. Adaptive technologies and agricultural practices may prove useful elsewhere as other regions face increasing water scarcity due to climate change. Drip irrigation technologies developed in Israel, for example, have been used to minimize agricultural water-loss in countries ranging from the United States⁸ to Senegal⁹. Other efforts in the region to develop sustainable technology include Abu Dhabi's initiative to build "a zero carbon, zero-waste city" in the United Arab Emirates¹⁰.

Arab gulf states and Israel have been at the forefront of developing desalination technology as a means for addressing water scarcity¹¹. The expensive and energy-intensive process has not found use outside of wealthy arid countries, however.

Dependence on Fossil Fuel Extraction

The economy in much of the Middle East has been shaped by fossil fuel extraction. Two-thirds of member states in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are located in the MENA region. Many countries in the region, highly sensitive to changes in the oil market, will be affected by carbon-related regulation aiming to curb the effects of climate change.

Economic effects of fossil fuel extraction include long-term state policies that subsidize petroleum products in countries including Iran, Jordan, and Iraq, as well as more welfare-oriented economies in gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait, whose citizens receive annual payouts from state oil revenue. While the region is responsible for only 4.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, the region has the fastest rate of growth of emission and a high volume of emissions per unit of GDP, due to inefficient use of a readily available high-carbon energy mix¹².

Footnotes

¹"IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: The Physical Science Basis," Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007)

²Milly et al, "Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate," Nature 438, (2005).

³J. P. Evans, "Changes in Water Vapor Transport and the Production of Precipitation in the Eastern Fertile Crescent as a Result of Global Warming," Journal of Hydrometeorology (December, 2008).

⁴"Adaptation to Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa Region," World Bank.

⁵Id.

⁶El-Fadel et al, ‘‘Water resources in Lebanon: Characterization, water balance and constraints.’’ Water Resources Development (2000).

⁷"The World Factbook - Yemen," Central Intelligence Agency

⁸"Water-related Technologies for Sustainable Agriculture in Arid/semiarid Lands: Selected Foreign Experience: Background Paper," Office of Technology Assessment, United States (1983), 63.

⁹Naomi Schwartz, "New irrigation project a boon for Senegalese farmers," Christian Science Monitor (July 17, 2008).

¹⁰Ahmed Ali Al Sayegh, "Message from the Chairman," The Masdar Initiative.

¹¹"100 Largest Desalination Plants Planned, in Construction, or in Operation," Worldwater.org (January 1, 2005).

¹²"Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa," The World Bank.